Date of Award

9-6-2024

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Political Science

First Advisor

Tofigh Maboudi

Abstract

The link between climate change and conflict has become a topic of great concern in politics and academia. While existing literature has suggested a relationship between resource scarcity and conflict, innovative methods offer an opportunity to clarify causal paths. This study aims to build on the existing literature and parse integral components of the causal pathway linking climate events to conflict, with a particular focus on economic scarcity. Using a mixed-method approach, I investigate the mechanisms underlying the climate-conflict relationship through eight within-country analyses, exploring how varying levels of climate and migration contribute to conflict onset and examining other confounding factors. Importantly, this study emphasizes the significant role of economic scarcity in shaping the climate-conflict pathway, particularly in the form of urban migration and its impact on the distribution of economic resources. I test this relationship through a natural experiment in Bangladesh, providing causal inference. As climate events are expected to increase in frequency and severity, urban migration shocks leading to unrest are likely to become more common. This study has significant policy implications, as it provides insights for policymakers on conflict prevention policies and strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of climate-induced scarcity and migration. Overall, this study offers critical insights into the climate-conflict nexus, highlighting the importance of economic scarcity in shaping this relationship. By clarifying the causal pathway linking climate events to conflict and emphasizing the role of economic scarcity, this study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the issue and provides valuable guidance for policymakers.

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