Date of Award

9-6-2024

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts (MA)

Department

Criminal Justice

First Advisor

David Olson

Abstract

This study seeks to examine the relationship between alternative measures of criminal history and recidivism in a cohort of convicted individuals released from prison in Illinois between 2010 and 2015. The current study expands on prior research by examining the relationship between prior criminal history and recidivism using alternative measures of both to account for potential bias resulting from differential policing activities that may lead to convictions. Traditionally, risk assessment instruments have relied on an individual’s total prior convictions for any offense and any re-arrest after release from prison. The current research developed a more nuanced measure of prior convictions and post-prison arrests that excluded offenses that are most likely to result from on-view arrests by police (e.g., drug or firearm possession), and thus may have a different effect on how minorities are classified in terms of risk. With the introduction of the nuanced measure of criminal history, race appears to have a different relationship to recidivism when compared to models that use traditional measures of criminal history and recidivism. Specifically, there was no longer a statistically significant difference in the likelihood of recidivism for Black versus White individuals when these more nuanced measures were used compared to the traditional measures of criminal history and recidivism. Thus, this study suggests that when on-view offenses are excluded from the operationalization of previous criminal history and recidivism, racial disparities in the likelihood of recidivism are reduced/eliminated. While the results still indicate that criminal history is one of the most important factors in predicting recidivism, other factors such as age (e.g., emerging adults) also play a crucial role in predicting the possibilities of reoffending. The current study offers a starting point to evaluate the potential impact that different measures of criminal history and recidivism have on the development and implementation of less biased risk assessments.

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