Document Type

Book Chapter

Publication Date


Publication Title

Asset Price Bubbles: Implications For Monetary And Regulatory Policy



Publisher Name

Elsevier Science


A speculative bubble is usually defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues surrounding the topic of asset bubbles, the existence of bubbles is inherently an empirical issue that has not been settled yet. This paper reviews several important tests and offers one more methodology that improves upon the existing ones. The new test is applied to the annual US stock market data spanning over a century and at the monthly frequency covering the post-war period. Although we find evidence of stock price bubble in both cases, the post-war period exhibit only positive component whereas the annual data exhibit some episode of negative bubble.


Author Posting © Elsevier Science, 2001. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License.