What Has Driven the U.S. Monthly Oil Production Since 2009? Empirical Results from Two Modeling Approaches
Journal Risk Financial Management
From the early 1970s to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09, U.S. crude oil production followed a declining trend. After the Global Financial Crisis, U.S. crude oil production increased rapidly. This paper addresses the important question “what economic factors have driven U.S. crude oil production since the Global Financial Crisis?”. We propose that factors such as: the price of oil, the one period lagged price of oil, the price of copper, the crude oil price volatility, the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, and the high yield index spread, are important explanatory variables. Using two modeling approaches, namely, multiple regression, and the random tree methodology, we conclude that the one month lagged price of oil is the most significant explanatory variable, among all considered, for the upward trend of U.S. oil production from 2009 to early 2020.
Bhar, Ramaprasad; Malliaris, A. (Tassos) G.; and Malliaris, Mary. What Has Driven the U.S. Monthly Oil Production Since 2009? Empirical Results from Two Modeling Approaches. Journal Risk Financial Management, 14, 2: , 2021. Retrieved from Loyola eCommons, School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020081
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© The Authors, 2021.
Author Posting © The Authors, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of The Authors for personal use, not for redistribution. The article was published in Journal Risk Financial Management, Volume 14, Issue 2, January 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020081