Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-1-2023

Abstract

As a leading indicator, the ability to measure the predictive power of consumer surveys are very important for economic policy makers, especially to capture a forward-looking perspective on consumer trends. Trends in leading sectors such as real estate, automobile and consumer electronics are expected to signal direction of consumption demand in an economy. Within this framework, whether the consumer confidence signals the trends in leading sectors or the trend in leading sectors effect the consumer sentiment are vital questions to detect the dynamics of domestic demand. Macroeconomic cycles like high and volatile inflationary environments might create counter effect to determine the direction of causality between those factors. In Turkey, there are two consumer confidence indexes, Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Index and TURKSTAT Consumer Confidence Index which are regularly released by early 2000. This study aims to explain simultaneous relationships between consumer confidence and leading sectors with ARDL methodology using two consumer confidence indexes. Preliminary findings state that causality mostly runs from consumer confidence to demand for the products of leading sectors.

Journal Title

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

ISSN

2334-282X

Publisher

Middle East Economic Association and Loyola University Chicago

Volume

25

Issue

1

Comments

Presentation of the articles in the Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies was made possible by a limited license granted to Loyola University Chicago and Middle East Economics Association from the authors who have retained all copyrights in the articles.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License.

Download

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS